Hira Bahadur Thapa

As the situation unfolds following the US withdrawal, and collapse of Ashraf Ghani government and Taliban’s takeover, analysts have made predictions of different scenarios in South Asia and its periphery. New geopolitical landscape is in the offing with the Taliban assuming power in Afghanistan. In the changed security context, some countries would likely to gain leverage in shaping the Afghan politics over others. The chaotic scenes in Hamid Karzai International Airport since President Ghani left the country underscore the growing pains and anxieties of the Afghans, whose desperation to leave by any means is unparalleled. The number of Afghan refugees is likely to swell and they would try to enter any country in the neighbourhood as soon possible. Nepal may not be an exception given the porous border with India.

Afghanistan has a unique history of defeating the world powers. In three centuries, one world power after another tried to intervene in Afghanistan to further their own interests but failed. In the 19th century, the British, in the 20th century the Soviet Union and in the 21st century the US, have been embarrassed when they got engaged in misadventures of militarily intervening in the Afghan territory to enhance their strategic ambitions. They were forced to pull out finding the Afghan wars unwinnable. The withdrawal of US and NATO troops as per the 2020 agreement with Taliban engineered by the then American President Donald Trump has generated much criticism due to mismanaged evacuation plan.

While the Taliban prepare to take charge of the reins of power in Kabul, regional reverberation is being felt as countries around it try to secure their positions and ensure that their national interests are best protected under the new rule. Some big regional players have already started cultivating the new leadership by hosting the high-level meeting in the capital. Some others are eyeing the possibilities of expanding their strategic influence in the changed environment.

Competition
It is a fact that Afghanistan’s neighbours would be more engaged in their competition to make their own strong foothold in the country as it braces for the new regime. In 2019, a troika process including the US, Russia and China was formed to help Afghanistan achieve peace while negotiations were held in Doha between the Taliban and the previous Afghan government. These negotiations look redundant now with Taliban’s forceful takeover in contravention of 2020 agreement but the countries in the region have maintained keen interests in shaping the events in Taliban-administered Afghanistan.

Despite declining to make a harsh criticism of US failure in rebuilding Afghanistan by describing it a wounded animal where nearly US$ 2 trillion in 20 years was spent losing 2500 US servicemen’s lives, Russian foreign minister Sergey V. Laprov feels that Russia’s power in Central Asia grows even stronger in the wake of US exit from the country. He contends that the US and NATO members are giving up the positions in the world they were using for many decades.

The strengthening of Russian position in Central Asian security matters is symbolic of broader shift brought about by Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban, whose rise to power has been swift and shocking. Against this backdrop, the likely winners will be Russia, China and Pakistan whose footprints in the region will be deeper while India’s role will be undermined given the latter’s history of closer relationship with the ousted government. In the wake of the withdrawal, US influence is certain to wane in terms of regional affairs.

The rapid fall of President Ashraf Ghani whose government was negotiating power sharing agreement with the Taliban was also a vindication of Russia’s long-term strategy of building a diplomatic relationship with the Islamic group. Even in the midst of hasty departure of US, NATO forces and other Westerners, Russians have felt secure to have their embassy function as usual. To the contrary, the US embassy was shut down soon after the Taliban’s seizure of Kabul followed by evacuation of their diplomatic personnel.

If the history of India’s relations with the Taliban during their rule between 1996 and 2001 and US-backed government is any guide, the coming years will be very difficult for the Indian establishment to mend their relations with the new rulers. India-Afghanistan relations may suffer a setback with shrunken opportunities for deeper economic and political engagement.

For India which until now was the fifth largest donor to Afghanistan had huge strategic and economic stakes in the country. The Indian security establishment should have the vivid memories of 1999 hijacking of Indian Airlines plane bound for Delhi at the behest of then Taliban leaders and the humiliating deal they had to strike with them to release notorious terrorists for passengers’ safety. Hopefully, the new Taliban government will not provide safe haven for the terrorist organisations as feared by some governments. India has more anxieties than others considering the bitter past.

Chinese interest
In the transformed geopolitical landscape China will have deeper interests to further its economic ambitions no less in expanding its mega infrastructure project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by linking Afghanistan to it. Geographically, Wakhan Corridor is a panhandle 217 miles long but less than 9 miles wide that ends in Afghanistan’s short border with China measuring just 47 miles across. It has plans to extend BRI to its south-east neighbour by constructing a passage to link it to Pakistan through Wakhan Corridor, which both Pakistan and Afghanistan welcome.

To some commentators, US withdrawal is an example of America’s refocus of foreign policy strategy on competing with China’s rising economic influence in the region. Though Beijing may face serious consequences as resources hitherto deployed in Afghanistan would be redeployed to the Indo-Pacific to counter China, the presumptive expansion of economic activities through Chinese investment in Afghanistan may help bring peace in the region, which has suffered much due to terrorist activities.

(Thapa was Foreign Relations Advisor to the Prime Minister from 2008-09.thapahira17@gmail.com)