Gopal Khanal

Prime Minister and CPN-UML chairman KP Sharma Oli has taken a series of stringent moves against some leaders and members of federal parliament for their involvement in anti-party activities and defying party whip. Oli is said to have taken such disciplinary action to avert further untoward incidents in the party.
After receiving information that Madhav Kumar Nepal and some other senior leaders and MPs of the party are planning to repeat the Karnali scam in the federal parliament, Prime Minister Oli has begun due process by seeking explanations from them. Oli will remove them from the party if their replies are not satisfactory.
In Karnali Province, four members of the provincial assembly of Madhav Nepal's faction had crossed the floor and voted for Chief Minister Mahendra Bahadur Shahi, who belongs to CPN-Maoist Centre. It was the first floor crossing in the country’s parliamentary history, which violates parliamentary norms and values.

Appeal for accommodation
In order to accommodate Nepal-Khanal faction, PM Oli publicly appealed to its leaders and workers to realise the mistakes they committed while in Nepal Communist Party (NCP), but the Karnali case has laid bare their destructive intention. Now, it is clear that Nepal and his factional leaders want to destroy the UML by forming another party, which will ultimately make an alliance with Prachanda’s Maoist Centre. Some disgruntled leaders have publicly warned that they will cross the floor to defeat UML and its official candidate in other provinces and federal parliament, too.
Nepal's sole aim is to oust Oli from power. Prachanda often says that he has fallen in love with Nepal as demonstrated in saving the Maoist Centre-led government in Karnali Province.
Prime Minister Oli could not remain a mute spectator to activities which harm the party and the nation as well. Nepal and Prachanda were hell bent on removing Oli from the chair of NCP and control the party, but they failed to do so. It is relevant to recollect their decision to oust him from the party general membership. Can the action taken against the Prime Minister and elected chairman of the party be regarded as normal? No. Oli had to diffuse such action and eventually scuttle their alliances.
After the Karnali incident, Oli was compelled to take action against the spoilers by seeking explanations from them on April 20. During these days, Prime Minister Oli personally talked to some leaders of Nepal faction and requested them to return to the party. He also said those who will return to the party, will be given due responsibility.
Out of 121 UML lawmakers in the House of Representatives, Prime Minister Oli has support of two-thirds, and some MPs belonging to Nepal faction have returned to the fold while others are in consultation with Oli. Therefore, Oli has sought the clarification from 32 members of parliament - 27 from the federal parliament and 5 from the Karnali provincial assembly. He has not asked some members of federal parliament, including Gokarna Bista to submit explanations expecting their return to the party.
In Lumbini Province, a no-confidence motion had been registered against Chief Minister Shankar Pokharel by three parties - Nepali Congress, Maoist Centre and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) though JSP central leadership had not taken official decision to this effect. But the members, who had signed in the no confidence motion, took a U-turn and were sworn in as ministers. As the province chief, Pokharel has performed better as his government significantly improved in the development indicators in many areas.

Election as solution
The upcoming political scene is not clear but most likely it will be the continuation of Oli as Prime Minister. Even after the action taken against the MPs of Nepal faction, UML stays as the largest party in the parliament. If the opposition forces fail to form a coalition against Oli, the latter will be given a chance to form the government in his capacity of the leader of the largest party. If his government fails to win the votes of majority members of the HoR, he can recommend the date of fresh election by dissolving the parliament in line with the provision of the constitution.
There is still a chance of forming alliance of UML and JSP. Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato of JSP have been indicating that they will support Prime Minister Oli since the government has shown positive response to their demands. Of 34 members of parliament of JSP, majority are with Thakur and Mahato. If JSP, led by Thakur and Mahato supports Oli, the government might continue. As part of understanding reached between the two sides, some Madhesi activists implicated in legal cases will be released. Sources have claimed that Prime Minister Oli is also ready to form a commission to amend the constitution. Similarly, the jailed MP Resham Chaudhary will be released through following due legal course.
One scene seems clear. The future of Nepali communists is bleak as the communist parties have been sharply divided. Some key leaders have refused to come to compromise. They are out to destroy the party and are involved in a fight to the finish. In such a situation, the election might not be in favour of the communists, but still there is no alternative to it. As the Prime Minister has said in his political document, elections can be held any time soon. And, in reality too, fresh elections can be relatively a better option than to indulge in unfriendly struggle of power.

(Khanal is consulting editor at Gorkhapatra Corporation. khanalbro@gmail.com)