Ritu Raj Subedi

With the local elections approaching nearer, the political parties are apparently bracing for new alignments. Although the current five-party alliance has remained intact to this day, its leaders have started trading barbs against each other over the prospect of poll alliance. A few days back, some Nepali Congress (NC) leaders denigrated the alliance partners and ruled out the possibility of going together in the local polls. Their insulting comments have ruffled a few feathers in the CPN-Maoist Centre. In his riposte, Maoist Centre chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda warned of forging a poll alliance with the opposition CPN-UML if the NC continues to ‘chase’ his party. It was merely Prachanda’s warning shot against the NC but anything can happen in politics since it is a game of possibilities.

Prime Minister and Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba wants to forge poll alliance with the ruling allies in the upcoming three-tier polls but he has faced challenges from within his own party. A few days back, he told the party cadres in Parsa district that the alliance would create another chance for the NC to form a new government from the upcoming polls. He instructed his cadres not to antagonise the alliance’s leaders. PM Deuba did not mince words when he said that he became the PM with the backing of Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and Rastriya Janamorcha (RJ). He reminded them of party’s humiliating defeat in previous three-tier polls when it had gone solo in the elections.

Pragmatism
PM Deuba stressed political pragmatism to tip the poll scales in his favour but some of his junior colleagues have gone overboard in the wake of vertical splits of Nepali communist parties. As a proverb - make hay while the sun shines – goes, they are seemingly confident to reap political windfall from the division of the communist forces. But they are motivated by the short-term political goals and have lost sight of big political picture. The present government came into existence on the anti-regression plank after the Supreme Court (SC) reinstated the House of Representatives (HoR) dissolved by former prime minister KP Sharma Oli twice in the span of six months. The SC did not only quash Oli’s unconstitutional move to disband the parliament but also ordered to form the new government based on the petition of five political parties that stood together against Oli’s authoritarian adventure.

The Maoist Centre, Unified Socialist and JSP want to continue the current alliance until and beyond the elections so as to put the final nail in the coffin of regression. However, there are practical reasons for alliance partners to go together in the polls. The Maoist Centre had allied with the UML in the last election which helped it win additional seats in provincial and federal polls. The UML had also benefited from its alliance with the Maoist Centre. As the two parties are now separated after the breakdown of Nepal Communist Party, their electoral performance might not be rosy as it was in 2017. So the poll alliance is the preferred choice for the Maoist Centre at the moment.

On the other hand, newly formed Unified Socialist needs the poll alliance more than any other partner. Being a splinter of UML, the Unified Socialist stands to face the election before building its organisational structures. This is a reason why the NC and Maoist Centre do not want to leave it in the lurch given the role of Madhav Kumar Nepal, chairman of Unified Socialist, in knocking Oli off his perch and creating the present dispensation. Nepal and his colleagues are upbeat about the party’s nation-wide expansion. It has formed its committees in all 77 districts, seven provinces and almost all local units much to the chagrin of UML.

As the UML and Unified Socialist fight for same political constituency, the expansion of Nepal’s party is surely an eyesore for UML’s boss Oli. The opposition is aware of the fact that it is unlikely to retain its current position in all layers of government if it has to contest the poll against the alliance. So it has been making every effort to dismantle the coalition at all cost. But its stratagem to split the alliance has fallen through. In its latest bid, the UML asked the NC, Maoist Centre and JSP to forge the alliance in the local polls with the sole objective of isolating and crushing the Unified Socialist.

UML’s bait
The UML has forwarded different proposals to share posts according to the clout of parties at the local level. Its move is based on the assumptions that the NC will not sacrifice the major posts such as Mayors of Metropolitan and Sub-Metropolitan Cities for its junior partners. In that situation, the Maoist Centre, JSP and RJ could turn to the UML for better poll outcomes. But the allies have not risen to the UML’s bait. For them, it will be against the political morality to forge alliance with the UML that dared to strangle the people’s elected institution without rhyme or reason.

In case the NC fails to devise a credible poll alliance that is acceptable to all its allies, the three parties, namely Maoist Centre, Unified Socialist and JSP might go for a plan ‘B’ that is a Left Alliance excluding the UML. These parties have started working on this formula after some NC leaders aired their views against forming a poll alliance. The new Left Alliance might not only pose a big challenge to the NC and UML but could also alter the current power equation. Whatever the alignments and realignments of the parties ahead of the polls, they must not compromise their professed principle and ideology for the election is a moment to project their distinct identity, values and stance before the people.

(The author is Deputy Executive Editor of this daily.)