Gopal Khanal

In the early morning of February 1, 2021, the day new parliament was set to convene, the Tatmadaw, Myanmar's military staged a coup, detaining the elected leaders of the ruling party, National League for Democracy (NLD). The military imprisoned State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint and other prominent leaders of NLD, which had swept Myanmar’s recent general elections. The party got 83 per cent (396) of seats out of 476 in parliament. It was better poll performance of the NLD compared to the seats it won in 2015 elections. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won just 33 seats. The elections had dealt a humiliating blow to the army, and particularly General Min Aung Hlaing.
The military officials failed to curb the rising popularity of democratic leader Suu Kyi within the country. The army claimed that there was fraud in the polls and threatened to take action against the NLD. The coup d’état of 2021 is the third in Myanmar's political history, the first was in 1962 and the second in 1990.
General Ne Win had taken control of Burma through a coup on March 2, 1962. Since then, the government has been under direct or indirect control by the military. In May 1990, the government held free elections for the first time in almost 30 years, and Suu Kyi’s party, NLD, won 392 out of total 492 seats. However, the military Junta refused to hand over power to the NLD and continued to rule the nation, which was a second coup.
Then, general elections were held on November 8, 2015, with the NLD mustering an absolute majority. Suu Kyi assumed the newly-created post of state counsellor, a role akin to a Prime Minister. She was constitutionally barred from holding the post if president. So Htin Kyaw was elected as the first non-military president.
The 2008 constitution of Myanmar guarantees 25 per cent of seats in parliament to the military and doesn't permit the constitutional amendments without 75 per cent majority. Then why did the Tatmadaw stage a coup when it was commanding tremendous influence in Myanmar's politics? Even some vital ministries were under the control of army. The only reason was that the military party had begun feeling deeply uncomfortable with the rising power of Suu Kyi, who enjoys national and international backing too.

Instability
Myanmar is a now member of East Asia Summit, Non-Alignment Movement, ASEAN and BIMSTEC, but it had been adopting isolationist foreign policy. The military Junta ruled the nation detaching from what was happening around the globe. It is said even the large portion of economy is still controlled by supporters of the former military government.
The coup risks destabilising the geopolitics of South and Southeast Asian region. It seems that during the military rule, Myanmar became increasingly dependent on China as it faced intense international criticism. But democracy was gradually accepted in the first decade of this century. The country had adopted a 7-point roadmap to democracy, removing restrictions and slowly opening up to the world. But, this third coup has brought to an end to fragile democracy.
The army coup in Myanmar has been protested internationally as such a move is anachronistic in the 21st century. Democracy has lately become an integral part of people’s life and an essential ingredient of governing system around the world. The US released a statement just hours after the civilians were rounded up. The Biden administration has promised to take action against those responsible if these steps are not reversed.
China said it carefully noted, hoping all parties would properly handle their differences and maintain political and social stability. India said it has noted the development in Myanmar and it believes that the rule of law and democratic process must be upheld. India has been always steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar, MEA has said in a statement.
The US and India, should work together with China, to restore democracy in Myanmar, for this to happen, there needs an open diplomatic effort.

Nepal for democracy
A section of self-claimed intellectuals have made irrational attempts to connect Myanmar’s coup with the chaotic political situation of Nepal. By doing so, they are disserving the nation and democracy, too.
Prime Minister Oli has a strong democratic credential and his today's position has become possible due to his long and relentless struggle against the autocracy. The argument that Oli has orchestrated 'coup' against the constitution by announcing the mid-term polls, this argument does not hold water. Therefore, it is futile to try to relate the Nepal and Myanmar politics.
Nepal government has condemned the military coup. The government called for an immediate release of detained civilian leaders of Myanmar, including the president and state counsellor and expressed its hope that the democratic and constitutional process will be restored in Myanmar soon. The statement reads, ''We believe that all parties involved will respect the will of Myanmar people and hope that democratic and constitutional process will be restored soon.”
It is just a coincidence that Nepali Army (NA) on February 1 demonstrated 10 armoured vehicles in the streets of Kathmandu as part of its regular exercise. NA spokesperson Santosh Ballav Poudel said, “A scheduled armoured vehicle drill across the country by its eight battalions took place on 2-3 February.”
Why did the Nepali Army choose the February 1 (Magh 19) for its routine exercise? Was it planned to scare people? No, it was just a coincidence.
Prime Minister Oli has not only dissolved the House of Representatives but also announced the mid-term poll for 30 April and 10 May 2021. Therefore, if some interpret Oli's move as regressive, undemocratic and authoritarian and try to relate it to the Magh 19 or Myanmar's politics, this should be rejected at the first place.

(Khanal is consulting editor at Gorkhapatra Corporation. khanalbro@gmail.com)