P Kharel

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, the world is witness to the emergence of China as a superpower joining the other two — the United States and Russia — in the exclusive club. Superpowers earn their status on the basis of their visible prowess far in excess of other major powers. Until the Soviet Union’s breakup in the early 1990s, the world acknowledged it as the second superpower after the United States. Now China, against the stirring backdrop of having dealt with the pandemic early on and maintaining its economic growth to a better level than the records of rival economies, has earned a spot in the big power league.

A new dimension to global power equation is the growing Sino-Russian rapport and close economic cooperation as well as understanding on various international issues. The NATO-led war with the Taliban should never have happened. But it did. The US spent more than a trillion dollar. Its 40-plus allies joined the war at various levels, only to vainly put up an unconvincing brave face over the manner in which they quit the land without celebrations. If there were celebrations, it was the Taliban that participated in the same.

History ignored
It was one of the most glaring instances of history repeating itself. The British during the colonial days suffered a humiliating defeat. Two superpowers — the now-defunct Soviet Union and the United States — ignored the lessons of history, only to suffer high costs in terms of resources and prestige. The Russians entered Afghanistan towards the end of 1979, and quit the country after a full decade. The Americans invaded it in 2003 and stayed for nearly twice the Russian duration, suffering even more. Hence China, a new superpower, might be careful to borrow a leaf or two from what Moscow and Washington bitterly learnt in Afghanistan.
Russia has regained its strength to fill the vacuum the breakup of the Soviet Union had created. The US-led war in Afghanistan ended just about the time when Russia and communist China have developed a close rapport the like of which had never been recorded since the 1917 Russian Revolution. When ideals are carried on rickety stilts, their meanings sound empty. Massive propaganda blitz against foreign rivals often works. Not so when it comes to core issues at home, especially where literacy level is high; and people are aware of their average quality of life.

President Vladimir Putin’s popularity in Russia is better than Joe Biden’s among Americans. Into the 21st year in power, Putin’s public approval rating is 70 per cent or more, as indicated by various surveys endorsed by Western agencies. According to a poll in July, Biden’s ratings stood at less than 50 per cent after only six months in office. Foreign interventions often resulted in great suffering for local populations. The post-World War II and the inequalities they wrought are being reassessed regarding the quest for a better distribution of wealth and truly global participation in setting global agendas.
The dominance of a few countries in getting through decisions affecting the entire humanity is being critically viewed with vigour. By the next decade, new concepts for a better order are anticipated. For instance, genocidal occurrences in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have not been investigated because of big-power involvement whereas similar events a century ago or earlier are pursued threadbare and apologies sought.

In the new millennium, too, military coups in some countries are condoned while army takeovers elsewhere get condemned. The blatant inconsistency is a telling story of how international norms are floated and practised with different yardsticks by the very ones that are at the forefront in crying hoarse about global values, democratic ideals and other rhetoric. Most politicians are motivated by power and immediate benefits. The issue of what legacy becomes secondary. A man like Donald Trump would have waged a war if it strongly enhanced his prospects of winning a second term as the US president.
Blatant expediency and inconsistency disenchants the rest of the world. The teeming masses, struggling for meeting their basic needs, begin to get restless. The next stage is world domination — first in the economic sphere, bolstered by political clout, and backed by military strength. Sino-Russian alliance is to be viewed against this background.

Putin put Russia back on the international stage as a superpower, for which most Russians feel obliged. His consistent public opinion approval ratings reconfirm it. Chinese President Xi Jinping, like his predecessors, especially since Deng Xiao Ping’s rise in the late 1970s, has steered the world’s most populous country’s communist course, mixed with convenient capitalistic ingredients that have transformed the economy to a superlative height.

Core interests
China’s assured road to the world No. 1 economic spot within this decade is a matter deep consternation for the traditionally dominant powers. The concern is aggravated by the growing coordination between Beijing and Moscow on many key international issues of economic and other strategic interests. Labelling rivals “authoritarian” won’t work. The application of different strokes for different countries has proved to be too glaring and for too long to be effective any more. In any case, by the measuring rod of the traditionally dominant group’s own regular reports, most of the world is either authoritarian or semi-democracies.

The world has had their measure accurate. The predictability with which the major capitals functioned so inconsistently eroded their credibility among the silent but vast majority of people across the world. Disclosure as to how British Prime Minister Tony Blair appeared subservient to US President George W. Bush on the eve of the invasion of Iraq 20 years ago has created another big dent against the traditionally dominant.
The horrendous lie the Iraq invaders committed by claiming that the Saddam Hussein regime possessed weapons of mass destruction demonstrated how the big powers gave a fig to fair play and moral issues. They had the vain audacity to divert the absence of banned weapons to the fact that a “regime change” had been effected.

Years of rhetoric, without being matched by action, have had taken its heavy toll on the credibility of the dominant powers. Disenchanted billions of people across the globe have lost faith in those who for decades failed to walk the talk. As a result, the most visible beneficiaries seem to be China and Russia. That is, as of now.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)