Dr Achut Gautam

History is the best informant yet rational minds often than never endeavouring to seek solutions, tend to repeat them in an essentialist fashion, as unavoidable and inevitable. A rapidly rising power clashing implicitly and explicitly with the dominant hegemonic power portrays series of historic accounts popularised by the Western media as an analogy of the Thucydides Trap in milieu of rising tension consuming the powers at play. The Western media and its role in globalising the concept of Thucydides Trap vis-a-vis US-China relations has manifested in reshaping and reproducing geopolitical tension which besides being unnecessary needs avoiding.

Principle of coexistence is the only way forward for these great nations for stability and global peace. The US as the dominant power has a greater role in creating the necessary environment as China’s strategic role and power architecture is significantly different: it does not have its warships lurking in the Gulf of Mexico, and neither does it have a policy of containing the US nor has armed its neighbours and established military bases, as the US has done, in more than 88 countries.

Global power shift
A Harvard study has shown that in fifteen cases in history where a rising power and an established power interact, ten ended in wars. These historical accounts showcase hostility when global power shifts and processes involved invoke inherent dangers of conflicts of magnitude. However, given the current levels of global consciousness alongside immense breakthroughs and achievements in science and technology including the AI, human wisdom warrants great caution regarding possible conflicts and high tech wars. In addition, as evidence shows it’s neither the case that China has systematically undermined the US nor is there the possibility that China could be contained. The global power shift has appeared inevitable within this entanglement resulting from the incredible rise of China - not a threat to the US but a power questioning its unilateralism and global hegemony.
Facts on the ground are clear: China’s extraordinary rise and vast potentials for further growth premises it as a historic challenge for the US. In real world of politics it is well understood that China desires to assert its influence and advance its strategic interests in its region while the US wants to maintain its geopolitical dominance as the only global hegemon. Contestation between the two great super powers is inevitable but to hype up the idea of the Thucydides Trap is a serious folly of Western media.

Pragmatic approach is necessary and the US government should refrain from adopting extreme policies being influenced by populist media giants, war-lobbyists, and corporate interests originating in the West. As the global geopolitical circumstances continue to shift significantly, the Western media needs to come to terms with the reality that the rest of the world is no longer what it used to be during the heydays of ‘regime changes’ and military invasions. It’s time that the West listens to and learns from the rest. China has outperformed the US, which is a reality, and performing better is the only way forward for the US - however, not through military invasions or spiking up its military spending and neither through preemptive strategies, nor by playing the global police, as Nelson Mandela had said.
Reckless showdown of power in the South China Sea is yet another example how the US has continued to behave, despite its humiliating defeat and devastating situation unfolding in Afghanistan. Chinese view these maneuvers as being directed towards containment of China. It is wiser for the US to ratify the United Nations Convention on Law of Sea prior to its interventions and maritime adventures. The Independent quotes that the United States remains off the list of 168 state parties to UNCLOS, a list which includes all other major maritime powers such as Russia and China. For rules to be made and executed, all should be members, including the US.

After its defeat in Afghanistan, the US has focussed on the South China Sea despite its failures in Libya, Egypt, and Iraq. China’s claim of the nine-dash line has been challenged by the US and employing the “Indo-Pacific Strategy” to resist China, it has increased its navel presence. The tensions have increased with rapid militarisation of the region encircling China. However, as geopolitical experts, including Henry Kissinger point out, the US does not have a long-term pragmatic strategy to deal with China. In this situation, political trust amongst its allies including its global influence will further decline. Lack of strategy to deal with China means that America’s South China Sea adventure will certainly fail.

China’s significant role
Following the US retreat from Afghanistan, China will be playing a more significant role on the global stage and no one but the US has passed on the baton by way of its inefficiencies. Sharing its border with the ravaged country, China has enormous opportunity to look forward to and also countless challenges to prepare for. Primarily being a Confucius culture, China has never been reckless militarily and neither has it been involved in wars in recent times. Thus, promoting peace and fostering reconciliatory environment among differing factions through its development strategy could ensure the transition of Afghans towards a peaceful and prosperous society.

China’s one Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is certainly a proper and practical means to help the ravaged country through its difficult times and China comprehends that it has a lot to offer where the US and the West failed so miserably. The US-China contestation is inevitable and will continue for at least two decades to come, however the spectacular rise of China will continue. This leaves the US with no alternatives except to come to terms with China and through constructive dialogues work out an agreement in principle where both great powers honour the ideals of peaceful coexistence and avoid conflicts and high tech wars in future.

(Gautam is a researcher and political analyst. achut.gautam@gmail.com)