Achut Gautam

Great power rivalry between the US and China continues today and will gather momentum as the power shift becomes more dramatic. The US trade war with China launched during the Trump era has deepened during the Biden presidency and the bipartisan consensus furnishing the anti-China rhetoric will not cede any time soon, rather a more risky and conflict-ridden world looms ahead. Taking anti-China stance has been a populist domestic contour among the political elites that has resulted in Washington’s growing efforts to centre its policy in building blocks and alliances setting back the clock by decades, as seen during the bygone cold war days. The consequence has serious bearings on global scale. It is all the more troubling that discordant, divided Europe and irrelevant NATO have little to offer to help avoid possibilities of skirmish and conflicts as great power contestation plays out.

NATO, a security apparatus of the cold war era, appears focussed on seeking reasons for its own existence. With the Soviet Union gone, finding an adversary has been vital for its survival and in this regard, quest for disputes with Russia seem to partially satisfy its political cause. Pushing NATO expansion to Georgia or Ukraine is a bizarre and reckless idea without strategic reasoning; on the other hand for Russia, it means a direct threat and in defence of national security its willingness to push back should be understood by the West as a reaction to its provocation.

The US-led anti-China drive has prompted the West to collude on grounds of cold war security arrangements and despite experiencing clientele relationship muddled in disdain and disparagement as observed during the Trump era, EU is finding it difficult to champion its own interests and geopolitical independence during Biden presidency. Individual members of the EU have China as their main trading partner and would like to continue with this relation. Germany and France seek to reach out to Russia to thrash out contending issues calling for a summit with heads of states.

Critical moment
However, the US view of China as a security threat and the Washington bipartisan consensus to ‘contain China’ deeply rooted to and stemming from the ‘bloc-mentality’ of the cold war days have downplayed Europe’s independent foreign policy and overall strategic interests. New Balkan members, on the periphery have their own accounts, dividing Europe on Russia policy and undermining the role of a constructive Europe during this critical moment of great power contestation. Amidst the uncertainty and muscle flexing of the West, ‘pivot to Asia’ policy will likely involve NATO, to justify its final political cause of existence in efforts to serve the US liberal hegemony. However, what we see in Asia is not an aggressive or an expansionist China, but a declining US doubly bent on encircling China militarily to ‘contain’ its spectacular rise, by employing all means possible.

Bloc mentality and decoupling concepts are flawed, and efforts to contain China militarily through the inception of alliances such as AUKUS or the QUAD have increased tensions in Asia. Formation of AUKUS bears far-reaching consequences and it is believed that the gates to nuclear proliferation have opened. Ramping up war technologies and building up deterrent capabilities appear ‘business as usual’ and a dangerous global trend. The escalating race between the US, Russia and China for hypersonic weapons is a perfect example of the dangerous times we live in. Although the US is deeper into the militaristic game, it has intensified its global effort in hyping up the ‘China-threat narrative’, calling it a ‘Sputnic moment’. Facts are different than what the US claims; estimated global nuclear warheads according to Warhead Inventories 2021 published by Arm Control Association, show that the US possesses 5,550 nuclear war heads, France 290, the UK 225 and China 350.

Hostility, decoupling, military manoeuvres and bloc-segregations reflect the cold war mentality and consequently the US anti-China policies and the narratives have pushed it towards protectionism and withdrawals from free trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). With China’s application seeking membership to this organisation is a significant strategic move which will change the trade regime in Asia. The US has actively opposed the free trade policy beginning with Donald Trump and continues into Biden’s presidency. It’s a great irony that the US known as the champion of free trade has been entrapped in protectionism imposing the idea of more tariff and job protection.

On the reverse, China has been succeeding in striking off multilateral trade deals around the globe with its enormous domestic market attractions followed by incentives and concessions. As global trend, the US effort to ‘expel’ China from its sphere of influence has been countered by latter’s effort to extend its partnerships with other countries binding their economies even closer. China has taken strategic moves to further its international relationships recognising that the great power rivalry will play out in trade, multilateral engagements, breakthrough innovations and skilful diplomacy rather than depend on military solutions alone. China’s application to join the ‘digital economy partnership agreement (DEPA)’ with Singapore, Chile and New Zealand to promote collaboration in digital trade issues and ecommerce is aimed at ensuring its economic advantage and standing as constructive global power.

Red line
While China has excelled in its trade agreements with various nations around the globe, the US on the other hand has kept busy with its anti-China rhetoric, overemphasising on Taiwan as though it’s under attack. The Taiwan question is a red line for China as it is an integral part of the mainland and reminiscent to its final step towards national rejuvenation. It is all too clear that the mainland represents China and the one-China principle since four decades denies Taiwan. Chinese understand that their long awaited national rejuvenation is unstoppable, and most likely it will be through peaceful means.

Given that the US is superior to China militarily, and China has proven superior in terms of manufacturing, trade and commerce and multilateral engagements, the likelihood of skirmishes and clashes cannot be ruled out as great power competition accelerates. Geopolitical circumstances look gloomy and dangerous, and the situation will worsen as the geopolitical landscape shifts even further. And yes, we are heading towards a historical catastrophe unless great powers think rationally and work towards averting every possibility of conventional or high tech wars, including minor skirmishes and potential conflicts. The US and China do not possess the luxury of choice in formulating principles and ways to peaceful coexistence and strengthening multilateral institutions and building global governance for the good of every nation and humankind. For the start, the US needs to tone down its ‘anti-China’ rhetoric and approach other countries with respect.

(Gautam is a researcher and political analyst. achut.gautam@gmail.com)