P Kharel

Major European powers can be seen economically shaky amid the coronavirus pandemic whereas China’s rise as a competing superpower and Rosso-Chinese understanding in the conduct of their international relations have created additional challenges. This does not bode well to the mainstream West that apparently did not anticipate such development until early this century. The pandemic triggered in 2020 and China’s ability to confront the situation with dramatic effects in all-round manner caught the other powers carrying their tale of gross complacency, blinded as they were by their own successes and belief that others did not have the prowess to outscore them.
In the 1980s, Britain’s first woman Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher described giving away powers of taxation equivalent as slicing off her country’s sovereignty to continental Europe. She said: “We are not going to have a single currency.” The issue divided the party so seriously that the “Iron Lady”, who led her Conservative Party to three consecutive general election victories, was compelled to step down from party leadership and, with it, premiership.

No big surprise
Breixt might have in some modest measure vindicated the “Iron Lady”, who took the stand: “I am not handing over authority to a non-elected bureaucracy.” EU’s two largest economies —Germany and France — failed on vaccine supply line in connection with COVID-19 pandemic. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron bear the brunt of public criticism for the shortfall whereas countries previously dismissed as “upcoming” demonstrated better management.
Brexiters might be prepared to face economic challenges and loss of opportunities when it came to sharing the nation’s sovereign power with foreign elements. But the more than 40 per cent drop in Britain’s trade with Europe since early this year has provoked strong criticism from the Boris Johnson government for concluding a very bad deal with European Union.
In hindsight, it was only a question of time for the majority of Britons to opt for quitting EU less divisively than they were in 2016 when a 51.9 of the votes opted for quitting the grouping. The slim margin contrasted sharply with the 1975 referendum — two years after the country joined bloc. Two-thirds of the voters approved continued membership of the economic bloc.
Popular mood and national issues shift in the course of time. Some core ideas last for ages. Studies show that majority of Britons are nostalgic about their country’s past role as the biggest empire the world has known. Hence they would want to retain their power to decide on what course to opt for instead of having to compromise with the increasingly interfering EU.
Brexit was to happen sooner or later. But the existing bitter taste between EU’s major economies and the United Kingdom might not have been unanticipated. In the first month since leaving EU, the UK’s exports to EU registered a huge fall of 5. 6 billion sterling pounds and imports slumped by 30 per cent at 6.6 billion sterling pounds. The situation is expected to last throughout summer, if not for the rest of the year.
For London, there is another development creeping steadily — Scotland’s persistence with seeking independence. Two-thirds of British population thinks that Scotland might gain independence within this decade. Countries like Hungary and Poland have their own sense of national pride and priorities not always in tally with the continental powers. Individual identity based on independent decisions rather than “collective” measure is gaining ground.
Of late, some major EU economies have adopted a softer approach to Russia and China — the two countries which share long common borders and similar stands on significant issues involving industrial powers. If EU struggles to keep its flock together to discourage ideas of straying away from the union’s core concepts, Russia has recovered much of its lost ground in the past two decades.
Even as the US President Joe Biden begins steps aimed at economic sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the bilateral ties between Beijing and Moscow can be expected to find more common grounds for strengthening their relationship. Much of the world has learnt lessons from overstretching issues beyond the point of pragmatism and inevitability. Australia is an example. Shortly after the US began making more than veiled threats of punishing China for not promptly briefing the rest of the world on the spread of COVID-19, Australia last year announced the need for investigating the issue.
The fallout was quick to create deterrent effects. Beijing decided to issue a stern message through tough measures that deeply hurt Australia’s economy. Some European capitals, which toyed with the idea of following the Australian approach, quickly stepped back. They saw China as far more important to the Australian economy than the other way round.
NATO member Turkey is EU’s eternal member-in-waiting but getting aboard the economic bloc is found almost improbable. Turkey’s state of democracy and human rights conditions are ostensibly among the major factors responsible for keeping it at bay from the keenly sought after membership.
Many are convinced Turkey’s proactive initiatives and assertive positions — not exactly carbon copies of the major European powers — make the concerned capitals uncomfortable. Ankara cannot be expected to be passive in EU discussions — a prospect France and Germany wish to avoid.

Baffling
That Muslims constitute an overwhelming majority of Turkey’s population seems to go against its longstanding desire for partnership in EU. Freedom of travel and job opportunities for the citizens of the bloc’s member states would mean a likely flood of Muslims making a significant presence in the basically Christian-dominated societies.
When not yet France’s president, Macron, during a 2017 visit to Algeria, described colonisation as “crime against humanity”. But he did not understand the depth of the issue. He thought the new generations should forget what happened nearly three generations earlier. That’s what distresses African colonies in general about their former colonists, as they reflect on especially concerning the bitter war of independence African colonies suffered in their quest for freedom.
War is a racket that merchants of weapons and dubious profits run after. The demise of Western dominance might happen someday but it should not pave way for another version of domination by some other group. No group should be allowed to police the world at virtual will, and develop the idea of playing a demi-god with brutal arrogance on the crutches of what they prescribe as global values.

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)