Hira Bahadur Thapa

In a reshaped Middle East characterised by new agreements between Israel and two Gulf Arab states for normalising political relations, analysts opine that a new doctrine “Peace for Peace” is gaining traction. Israel is winning recognition from more Arab nations with continued disregard for the Palestinian rights. The Saudi-led 2002 Arab Peace Initiative linked Israel’s diplomatic ties with Arab nations with its withdrawal from the occupied Arab territories.

Genuine cause
The new development is in sharp contrast to the internationally agreed formula of “Land for Peace” for resolving Israel-Palestinian conflict. The Palestinians’ cause for statehood is genuine as they have been forced to live under Israeli occupation in contravention of international law and defiance of the UN resolutions.
The Palestinians have been fighting for establishing an independent state for decades along the pre-1967 border with Jerusalem as its capital. Their demand for the territories in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which Israel seized in a six-day Arab-Israel war in June 1967, has gone unheeded. The September 15 diplomatic deal among Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain has further sidelined the Palestinians, let alone fulfilling their aspirations.
Seen against the background of the Israeli-Egypt peace treaty (1979), the above agreement between Israel and two Gulf Arab countries is different. Israel had been in war with Egypt several times. Egypt’s President Sadat in the late 1970s took a bold step of making peace with Israel without linking it to the legitimate rights of the Palestinians. Egypt got back its lost territory, the Sinai Peninsula, from Israel as a peace dividend.
Israel concluded a peace treaty with Jordan in 1994. Both of them had fought a war unlike to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The normalisation of political relations of Israel with Gulf Arab countries has got special significance in view of forging Israeli-Arab strategic partnership to counter Iran. The common perception of Iranian threat has facilitated their peace.
Egypt and Jordan each made peace with Israel to end their state of war, but trade, tourism, and investments have been limited. The new diplomatic deal provides opportunities of promoting not only tourism and trade among the three countries but also boosting their security cooperation and intelligence sharing to counter Iran.
Optimists have predicted that more Arab nations will follow suit of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain once they see value in terms of economic benefits. The Arab countries have undergone sweeping changes economically following the erosion of oil prices and are constrained to offer government subsidies as before. To effectively address the growing youth unemployment, they need to develop trade, tourism and investments.
Many Sunni Arab states have realised that they can no longer retain their legitimacy by outbidding one another on the Palestine question. Their future stability depends on their providing youth the educational tools, the trade relationship, the global connectivity which they need to thrive.
Saudi Arabia, the largest nation among Gulf emirates, has not yet pronounced its abandonment of the 2002 peace plan, the essence of which is the two-state principle, allowing Israel and Palestinians to coexist side by side. However, it has not opposed its neighbours’ recent normalisation drive with Israel. Had it not been so, it wouldn’t have consented to Israel’s El Al airlines to fly through Saudi airspace back and forth to Bahrain and United Arab Emirates.
Some analysts view that the normalisation of Israel-Emirates and Israel-Bahrain was actually set in motion because of the failure of the Trump administration’s Israel-Palestinian diplomacy. The US-backed peace plan released in January by President Trump’s Mideast envoy could not garner support from the PLO. The Palestinian leadership believed that it was designed to legitimise the status quo than to move both sides to sustainable resolution.
Against such a gloom for resolving the Israel-Palestinian issue, there were some tactical considerations for the UAE to proceed for normalisation of relations with Israel. Facing reelection later this year US President was eager to claim victory in seeking peace in the troubled region if there could be agreements between Israel and Gulf Arab nations. The UAE felt its leverage with the Trump administration at a time of incumbent president facing an uphill battle for the White House. As such, if there was ever a time, the US would sell the UAE advanced F-35 stealth jets, after refusing for eight years.
This convergence of interests between the US and the UAE played an important role in inking the Israeli-Emirati diplomatic deal. Trump hosted its signing ceremony at the White House.
Critics of the Abraham Accords have suggested that Israel has become the unambiguous winner. They, however, point out that there are some potential consequences. The suspension of Israeli annexation plan of West Bank territories, supposed to give respite to the Palestinians, will not resolve the withdrawal issue of Israel from the Arab occupied territories. The security dilemma between the UAE and Iran could get worse.
Unlike the agreements Israel signed with Egypt and Jordan—to return land to those countries—the UAE-Bahrain deal comes at no cost to Israel.

Shattered expectations
Beginning in 1993 with the signing of the Oslo Accords, the PLO embarked on a process of negotiation with Israel that was supposed to lead—at least the Palestinians viewed it—to an independent state, kicked off by recognition of Israel. With Israeli-Emirati and Israeli-Bahrain accords, such expectations have been shattered temporarily.
There is no swap of land for peace, which should have been the case judged from the Palestinians’ eyes. Sadly, for them a once united diplomatic front of Arab states supporting their cause is closely crumbling. This may not auger well for lasting peace in the Middle East despite euphoria in Washington and Tel Aviv because of the recent diplomatic breakthrough.

(Thapa is a former foreign policy advisor to the Prime Minister from 2008 to 09. thapahira17@gmail.com)