Sharad K. Shrestha

Climate change is a major issue to both Nepal and Nepalese people. It is seriously threatening Nepal’s food security, human habitats, water resources and tourism sectors. Nepal and the entire greater Himalaya region are facing multiple challenges due to climate change. Mountain landscape including our Himalayan glaciers is already showing indications of climate change impacts. The mountain regions are more vulnerable because it has been seen that both the warming trends as well as the impacts are magnified due to the extreme changes in altitude over small distances. Majority of Nepalese people’s source of livelihood is agriculture which relies strongly on the monsoon systems and indications are strong that the monsoon pattern especially rainfall timing, frequency, duration and intensity all may be altered due to climate change.

Signs of Warning
The recorded rates of warming in the Himalaya are significantly higher than the global average. Within the region, the rates in the western Himalayas, eastern Himalayas, and the plains of the Ganges basin over the last 25 years are lower (0.01-0.03°C per yr), and those for the Nepal Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau (based on limited station data), appear to be considerably higher (0.04 to 0.09°C per yr and 0.03-0.07°C per yr respectively). The measurements in Nepal and Tibet also indicate that warming is occurring at much higher rates in the high altitude regions than in the low altitude areas; the vast low elevation areas of India do not show any significant signs of warming.
The monsoon rainfall in Nepal like in other South Asian country is to a large scale correlated with regional climatologically phenomenon but as yet the total rainfall has not shown any decreasing or increasing trends due to climate change. Himalayan mountains play a special role in understanding climate change. One of them is through study of glaciers. As the glaciers are receding, there will be changes in the disaster risk to the people’s lives and livelihoods in the region. The increase in glacier melting and resultant GLOF has already caused flash floods in Khumbu region.
Climate change is already affecting ecosystem services by affecting forest type and area, primary productivity, species populations and migration, the occurrence of pests and disease, and forest regeneration. The increase in greenhouse gases is also affecting species composition and changing the ecosystem structure, which in turn affects ecosystem function. Climate change can affect people‘s wellbeing in a variety of ways. It is likely to exacerbate the existing food insecurity and malnutrition. Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are likely to move to higher altitudes. Water-borne diseases are also likely to increase with the increasing water stress accompanied by the lack of safe drinking water and basic sanitation in the region. Deaths and morbidity associated with extreme and erratic weather are also likely to increase. Climate change will have differentiated impacts which could be more severe for women, and poor and marginalised groups.

Retreating Glacial Lakes
Glacial lakes have formed in many places in the area left at the foot of retreating valley glaciers. An inventory compiled by ICIMOD identified 8790 glacial lakes within selected parts of the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. Some 204 of the glacial lakes were considered to be potentially dangerous, that is liable to burst out leading to a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). There have been at least 35 GLOF events in Bhutan, China and Nepal during the 20th century. The glacial lakes have been formed in different parts in Eastern Himalaya.
Six nations in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region have prepared greenhouse gas inventories (Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan). Together these countries emit approximately 17% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions which is low compared with their area and population. The average emissions from the HKH part of these countries is likely to be much lower than the country average as the mountain regions are sparsely populated and much less industrialised. There is a considerable disparity between the countries with China emitting 12% of the global total, India 4%, and Bhutan acting as a net sink. The emissions from these countries are expected to increase further with future economic growth.
Climate change is becoming already dangerous to our survival and we have to do everything possible to prevent its catastrophic impacts. The globally accepted strategy to contain disastrous climate change impacts is Adaptation and Mitigation. For a least developed country such as Nepal, mitigation is not a priority. As per UNFCC agreement, Nepal is required to prepare National Action Plan on Adaptation or NAPA and the ongoing preparation and implementation of a comprehensive NAPA will be a good way forward for Nepal. Nepal’s location in the central Himalaya which forms the catchments of the vast agriculturally and industrially important Indo-Gangetic plains make it both vulnerable and suitable to play a significant role in addressing the issues of climate change for the entire Indian sub continent.

COP-15
In the COP-15 in Copenhagen, the major role of Nepal is to demonstrate its resolve to address climate change issues for regional and global benefits. Nepal’s successful community forestry can provide opportunity for voluntary carbon finance through instruments such as REDD.
Our country should plan to have economic development and environment conservation program that focuses on Low carbon economy, efficient use of natural especially water and forest resources through higher resilience and adaptation methods and regional co operation to promote equity and fairness through instruments such as Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES). In terms of implementation of adaptation plans, two pronged development strategy are needed for resolving of conflicting demands of conservation and development and matching interests of poor with interests of environment. Nepal is largely a mountainous country and current indications are that the mountain regions are more vulnerable due to increased warming trends as well as extreme changes in altitude over small distances.
These alarming trends not only make Nepal’s major sectors of economy such as agriculture, tourism and energy more vulnerable but also endanger the health, safety and wellbeing of Nepali people. (NAPA) should be made as comprehensive and topical as possible. Well coordinated, quick and serious implementation of NAPA will be extremely important to mitigate and adapt to the growing impacts of climate change in Nepal which is also been affected from COVID-19 at present.

(Shrestha writes on environment
issues regularly)