Chandra D Bhatta

From the period of Mahabharata, Afghanistan remained an important political and social geography. We have many stories about this landmass mentioned in the Mahabharata war – which was precisely fought in the northern part of the Bharatbarsha – unlike the Ramayana – which mostly occurred in the South. That was long ago. Yet, in between, many more happened in the region. Later, Rudyard Kipling’s famous novel Kim was partly set around the history of what scholars call Great Game in Asia. In the novel as well, Afghanistan remains the focal point of discussion in more than one way. In the years that followed, the Great Game also included Younghusband mission of which Afghanistan was part to a great extent.

In fact, Afghanistan’s strategic location has always been appealing for outsiders – who brought bane, not necessarily boon – neither for Afghans nor for themselves. The Afghan stories are covered not only by the Hollywood movies, but in a plethora of literatures. All of them have their own heroes and villains. Yet, some also valorise Afghans as well. Later years, movies and documentaries are centred around the Taliban and explain concerns of Afghans, especially their desire to live a peaceful and dignified life for once all and Osama is one such in that regard. Interesting as it may be, the central message from Sylvester Stallone starred movie – Rambo III – to the recent ones have something in common that Afghanistan is an important country with potential to have profound impact on the global politics.

Afghan dynamics
Therefore, it should neither be ignored nor be left to others. The other side of the story, however, is the resilience factor of Afghani society which not only helped them to survive but also created graveyard for successive empires and invaders. Not only recent superpower(s) but from Alexander to the Arab Muslims, including Babur and Genghis Khan, to name a few, have made their routes to the region via Hindu Kush either to enter into the Bharatbarasha – or central Asia. Many vanquished in the process. In the midst of this, the theorists of international relations have failed to understand Afghan dynamics.
Yet, what certainly can also be observed is the crumbling down of the successive civilising missions that became, to quote Kipling again, ‘white man’s burden’. Recent efforts of building state from outside, too, went towards the same direction. Moreover, every time such missions and efforts began, they ended up in disaster. It is worth mentioning the fact that most of the superpowers have emerged from and collapsed in Asia only. Afghanistan factor was an important one behind the fall of former USSR.

Afghanistan, once the cradle of the ‘Indus-Saraswat’ civilisation where Hinduism and Buddhism flourished, has become a battle ground for many centuries. In the course of it, the country has lost all those past civilisational ingredients. The last one – Bamiyan Buddha – was destroyed by the Taliban in 2001. This in no way is to say that Afghans never lived a peaceful time. They did so. Those were the days when people from there used to move freely in the region and beyond to sell dry fruits and other stuff. The level of trust in the region was such that they would only come next year all the way from Kabul/Kandahar to collect their dues. Kabuliwala – a famous story about an Afghan fruit seller, – is the classic example to this end.

The border of Afghanistan is also the place where naked Jain monk(s) and Alexander the Great got engaged in a discussion to know each other’s perspectives on life – the central tenets of the Eastern and the Western civilisation. The response from Jain monk was such that Alexander lost his mental balance – yet he is called ‘the Great’ – for the unknown reason. For many years, the landmass between the Arabian Sea and the Himalayas – which has broken down over the period of time into several pieces and part of it, now, called South Asia – too, remained, important in the world politics.
The situation, however, has truly worsened mainly after the 1970s when Afghanistan became, yet again, the epicentre of power struggles between the then two superpowers – the US and the former USSR. Both the superpowers clashed and clamoured in the region and in such process, many proxies were born out of it. It is these proxies, for good or bad reasons, along with their masters - who are still fighting, and we do not know who they are fighting for. Not definitely for the common Afghans – whose agonies was witnessed in the Kabul airport few days back while some were hanging on the wheels of an airplane that was about to take off for the US – which many Afghans call invading state.

Paradoxical as it may be, the question arises why, then, Afghanistan? In this regard, one may come up with, at least, two most important reasons: first is the access it provides to the central and Euro-Asian market since the time of Marco Polo or even before that – the famous Silk route. Second reason, for its part, is by putting Afghanistan under one’s belt, makes it easier to keep an eye on both sides of Eurasia. This still appears to have been motivated Mackinder’s ‘heartland’ theory – who argued that control of a ‘pivot’ or ‘heartland’ of Eurasia, including Central Asia, would allow to keep the balance of global power in one’s own favour. And for many foreign policy strategists, it appears valid.

Coming back to South Asia, we have seen many ups and downs. Recent takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban would definitely have its own implications in the region in the days to come. This is the second time the Taliban are reigning in Afghanistan since their fall in 2001. We do not know whether or not the Taliban have changed but many other things, for sure, have changed since then for good or bad reasons. Asia now has two re-emerging powers – China and India – and geopolitics here is more pronounced than ever before.

Geopolitics
There could be more than one reason as to why geopolitics, once again, has moved towards Asia - the Asia pivot – which only has drawn attention of other Western powers – including the US – in the region. The tension between the resident powers – the US and its allies – and the re-emerging powers on geo-economics and geopolitics is already underway simultaneously whose impacts could well be seen in the formation of new alliances in the region. The political fallout in Afghanistan will further exacerbate the chaotic geopolitics in South Asia.

The billion-dollar question is: what factors pushed Afghanistan to the current situation? One of the world’s oldest states that was never been conquered by the outsiders, Afghanistan suffered at the hands of many powers but it remained independent with no Independence Day like that of Nepal. However, chronic internal political instability, ideological confusion coupled with the role of various international actors, and inability of Afghan leaders to manage internal dynamics have created current state where non-state actors summon the state in more than one way.

Moreover, Afghanistan is also the place where capitalism and communism clashed with each other, inviting ‘religion’ in between, thereby making it more difficult to restore peace and order. Ashraf Ghani – a technocrat – who wrote a book on Fixing Failed States, could not fix his own, instead he fled the country. Last, the Afghanistan debacle has morphed into a serious political headache in the region and now the pertinent question is: do the regional bodies like SAARC have capacity to deal with it? Perhaps no, for it is the part of a broader geopolitical game.

(Bhatta writes on issues related to political economy. bhattacd@gmail.com)