Hira Bahadur Thapa

The September 15 announcement of an agreement between the US, UK and Australia regarding maritime security cooperation has fueled French diplomatic row with its traditional transatlantic allies. The objective of trilateral defense partnership is to promote deeper security between three partners in defense-related artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cyberwarfare and under water technologies.

France’s fury has been induced by the decision of the US and UK to help Australia build nuclear-powered submarines which is one of the main components of the new agreement known by its acronym AUKUS. The agreement has prompted Australia to cancel a $ 66 billion contract with France initialed in 2016 to buy French submarines. Submarine sale is one of the France’s biggest military deals. Australia has argued that in view of growing security threat from China with whom its relations have nosedived in the recent times, conventionally designed French submarines would not meet its defense concerns.

Nuclear-powered submarines
As per the agreement the US is providing highly enriched uranium for the nuclear-powered submarines. The UK has committed to cooperate with the US to help build the submarines sharing nuclear propulsion technologies conforming to its 1958 defense agreement with the US. With this new deal Australia is becoming the seventh member of the exclusive club of nations that operate nuclear powered submarines. The other six nations are China, France, Russia, the UK, US and India.

Only once in history has America handed over a nuclear submarine propulsion plant, crown jewels of military technology, that too to Britain with whom its has signed a defense agreement in the 1950s. It was 63 years ago when America helped the British Royal Navy go nuclear. The above trilateral defense pact will involve far-reaching defense cooperation between America, Australia and Britain. Understandably, such assistance to Australia, the precise form of which will be worked out within 18 months, will help the country build a fleet of at least 8 nuclear-powered submarines.

Besides France’s dissatisfaction over the cancellation of lucrative arms deal and doubts over the credibility in transatlantic alliance, the introduction of new nuclear technology in future submarines in Australia has raised legitimate concerns for upholding the global norm of nuclear nonproliferation. It is because nuclear powered submarines need highly enriched uranium, which has the purity level that can be misused in manufacturing bombs. Given Australia’s track record on nuclear nonproliferation, acquisition of nuclear submarines hopefully won’t induce it to go nuclear though its threat perception of rising China has been the major factor for it to throw the French submarine contract in ruins.

There is certainly nuclear dimension here. The US has promised to share highly sensitive nuclear technology with Australia. Such technology is required for nuclear reactors to power the advanced submarines. Nuclear-powered submarines are sensitive not just because of their range, speed and stealthiness. It is also because they are powered with the same stuff —usually, uranium enriched so that it has higher proportion of most fissile-isotope, u-235-that is used in bombs.

France is fuming over Washington’s plans to establish a strategic security partnership with Australia and the UK that includes the exchange of sensitive technologies and sale of US-made nuclear submarines to Australia. This agreement has caught France by surprise.

Analysts opine that new nuclear coalition is emerging in the name of strengthening deterrence against China, which suspects that the arrangement poses a threat to its security. The AUKUS agreement is being signed formally in Washington. This pact reflects the shared concern of America, Australia and Britain over China’s growing power and, in particular, US’s eagerness to beef up the military capabilities of the Asian partner. This has led France to question the reliability of America in ensuring transatlantic alliance.

However, the US administration officials have described the president’s commitment to Atlantic alliance as unwavering. President Biden has said, “The deal was about investing in our source of strength, our alliance and updating them”. Additionally, in his debut UN address on September 21 Biden has reiterated America’s resolve to fulfill security commitments to the Western allies. Against this backdrop some security analysts argued that China’s recent retaliation against Australia over its harder line — slashing imports of coal, wine, beef, lobster and barley, along with detaining two Australian citizens of Chinese descent-appeared to have pushed the country in the America’s direction. Australia is betting its house on the US maintaining its resolve and will.

Geopolitical rivalry
The new security agreement is a classic illustration of balance-of-power/balance-of-threat in the opinion of Stephen Walt, a Harvard professor. He elaborates that this defense cooperation initiative was taken in response to growing perceptions of a rising China threat. These perceptions are based on China’s increased capabilities — including its capacity to project naval power in the Asia-Pacific. Hence, AUKUS is seen as an effort of the US to reset naval balance in the Pacific. The US is convinced that equipping Australia with long-range, extremely quiet nuclear-powered submarines will enable Canberra to play a more active role in the region along with other Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) members. China has viewed US-led Quad as a coalition of Australia, India and Japan to encircle it. This exemplifies ongoing geopolitical rivalry between the US and China.

The most visible reverberation of the trilateral defense pact is rapidly deteriorating Franco-US relations no less evidenced by two recent episodes. The cancellation of a gala event by France in Washington on September 17 celebrating 240 years of France-America bilateral relations is noteworthy. The recall of French ambassador to Washington is a precedent never seen in 240 years-old US-France diplomatic relations. Whether the transatlantic alliance itself becomes a victim of strained US-France relations is uncertain albeit amidst mounting criticism president Biden has reassured old allies of US commitment to maintaining a strong Western alliance through his annual speech at the UN.

(Thapa was Foreign Relations Advisor to the Prime Minister from 2008-09. Thapahira17@gmail.com)