P Kharel

In a marked boost to his international profile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, a few weeks after making a stirring 50-minute extempore address at the United Nations in September, found himself playing role of a mediator between two oil-rich Muslim countries - Iran and Saudi Arabia last week. He drew thumping appreciation from large sections of the delegates.
At the same time, he was deeply engaged in meetings with the United States President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The Saudis wanted him to mediate between Riyadh and Teheran. And Trump made a request for the mediation. Teheran, too, gave the green signal for the Pakistani leader whose stock, as a result, shot up overnight not only in the Muslim world in particular but also elsewhere in general.
Although the full impact of the event should unfold in the coming days, the Khan’s emergence as a South Asian leader approached for the important role in a potentially hot political spot which, if allowed to aggravate, could spill into a devastating development. Trump’s special request sends a message of significance that cannot be overlooked in effective terms. Khan’s mission is to probe prospects for restoring a modicum of normalcy in the Saudi-Iranian relationship. If that were to be accomplished, it would do a whale of good to not only the immediate stakeholders but also in the whole West Asia. Russia’s relations with Iran are on high level, and China, in appreciation, maintains an outwardly distance but with approving stand on the duo’s doing in the region.

New mission
Last week, Khan, accompanied by his Foreign Minister Mahmood Quereshi flew to Teheran and Riyadh for the first step in his new mission to help reduce tensions and mitigate immediate problems between the two oil-rich neighbours. He met with the leaders of the two oil-rich countries, including Saudi Crown Prince Salman, and Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Rouhani. Washington and Riyadh accused Teheran of being involved in the September attacks on its major oil facilities in September. Whereas 2.5 million Pakistani nationals work in Saudi Arabia, Iran shares 1,000 KM border with Pakistan.
The peace trips were preceded by Khan’s meeting in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other top-notch leaders of the economic superpower that is set to overtake the US as the world’s No. 1 economy by 2035. His meeting with Xi resulted in Beijing declaring it would not do anything that would go against the core interest of nuclear Pakistan. This was shortly before the latter was to leave for the Indian city of Chennai for the second informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
That Beijing assured Islamabad of supporting the latter’s core interests so close to Xi’s impending meeting with the Indian premier must have gladdened Khan while New Delhi must be assessing its implications against the backdrop of the Kashmir issue whose special status was scrapped by the Modi government’s having erased Article 370 that governed the state’s status. Given the continuing unease in Kashmir, such Chinese signal was not what the Modi government expected.
There are lingering fears that, far from a decidedly firm settlement, the abrogation of the Article 370 might turn Kashmir into a bleeding wound enfeebling India. New Delhi generally resolutely rejects third party involvement in settling bilateral and domestic issues. At this stage, it is too early to predict the run of the Kashmir course, though New Delhi itself is very conscious of the situation there and cautious about any hint of suggestion concerning the Muslim majority region where an estimated 70,000 lives have been lost since 1989.
The chorus of anti-Pakistani reports and comments on most mainstream Indian TV channels notwithstanding, Islamabad is likely to capitalise on Khan’s success with Xi and the confidence placed in him by Washington, Riyadh and Teheran in the role the trio offered him. There are limits to the prospects of such capital being attained, except that the Pakistani prime minister appears to have gained some ground in this front by the manner in which he dispensed with many a privilege traditionally accorded to the government head.
Of note is that Nawaz Sharif, during his stint as prime minister, had also undertaken a mediator’s role in 2016. But the Iran-Saudi stalemate today bears a graver situation, and hence the significance of Khan’s mission. Expecting an overnight breakthrough might be overstretching wishes too far.
The first spell of faint light at the remote end of the tunnel would be more of Khan’s visits, and actual meetings between the two sides in the confrontation that nearly took them into blows. Khan’s meeting with the Iranian president on the sidelines when they were attending the UN session in September, together with Trump’s suggestion for the mediation, set the tone of the move. Khan’s latest meeting with Xi has also contributed to adding to the tenor of the given mission. At a time when the Kashmir issue is a major occupation with both New Delhi and Islamabad, Khan’s latest diplomatic engagements are closely watched by its South Asia and West Asian neighours plus big powers.
In his September 26 address to the UN General Assembly, Khan was visibly disappointed with the international community’s silence over eight million Kashmiri people: “If eight million Europeans or Christians or Jews or Americans were put under siege well, even if eight million Americans had been put under siege, you can imagine the reaction.” In the same breath, he made a veiled warning that the world may witness a wave of dangerous repercussions and radicalisation, as a reaction to the situation in Kashmir where “people are being treated worse than animals”.

Test of the times
It would be unusual if the recent events in Hong Kong and Kashmir did not figure in the Modi-Xi second informal summit in Chennai on October 11-12. The two cases are different but merited discussion. As the past bears so tellingly, the passage of time often wears out many an issue. It may be recalled that China took more than 25 years to recognise Sikkim as a part of India. Modi and Khan are aware of the test of the times but the approach they adopt and the intensity they apply will determine the strength and success of their respective responses. SAARC’s summit conference has been delayed on account of differences between the grouping’s two largest members—India and Pakistan.

(Former chief editor of The Rising Nepal, P. Kharel has been writing for this daily since 1973)