Uttam Maharjan

As the Omicron variant is attacking Europe and other continents, a new way of thinking has emerged in Europe. Several European countries are discussing the possibility of treating COVID-19 as an endemic disease. It is surmised that as the Omicron variant has higher transmissibility than other variants, the variant could be the last one in Europe, indicating that no other variants would emerge and that the respiratory contagion would be weaker, thus assuming the ‘endemic’ tag.

As per the World Health Organisation (WHO)’s regional director for Europe, as many as 60 per cent of the people in Europe will have been infected with COVID-19 by March. What with vaccination and what with protection gained from previous infections, the disease may fade away as people will have developed required herd immunity by then. And there will be a lull in the incidence of the disease for weeks or months. However, the disease may reappear towards the end of this year. Even if it reappears, it will not be as dangerous as it is today because it will be in the form of an endemic, not a pandemic. This is, however, possible only after the current incidence has subsided.

Revamped approach
Spain is taking the lead in endemicising COVID-19. Some other countries such as Britain and Portugal are also agreeable to this strategy. Spain is preparing to unveil a revamped approach to COVID-19 according to the traditional surveillance model dubbed flu-isation. Under the model, the disease is tackled by converting crisis mode into control mode and by following such methods of prevention, control and treatment as are applied to dealing with the flu and measles. The existence of the disease will be accepted but the patients will be treated on a par with other patients and treated accordingly.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez wants the European Union to consider similar strategies, arguing that despite possessing the power of rapid transmissibility, the Omicron variant is less lethal than other variants. WHO has not clearly defined criteria for endemising COVID-19 but experts say that endemisation of the disease takes place when the virus is more predictable and there are no sustained outbreaks so that society does not get disrupted. However, many variants have proved elusive. That is why the disease has not shown any signs of subsiding even after two years of the outbreaks.

However, it would be too early to endemise COVID-19. The disease is still spreading like wildfire. Millions of people are getting infected every day. In Nepal, too, the Omicron variant has drastically raised the number of infections over the last few weeks. Although more and more people are falling victim to the variant, the situation is not alarming given that the infection is mild and that hospitalisations are few and far between.

WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has struck a downbeat note. He says that it would be dangerous to assume that the Omicron variant will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame because conditions are ideal globally for more variants of the coronavirus to emerge one after the other. Since it first emerged in South Africa in November 2021, the Omicron variant has infected over 80 million people. The endemisation strategy dictates that we live with COVID-19 but it would be foolish to give the disease the reins, allowing it to kill thousands of people a day.

No disease can persist on earth forever. The Spanish flu remained on earth for a little over two years from 1918 to 1920. It infected as many as 500 million people, claiming the lives of a whopping 50 million. However, at long last it disappeared from the world.

Now, we have vaccines. The vaccination drive has been going on in full swing all over the world. Although there is a disparity of vaccine distribution between developed and developing/least developed countries, all eligible people may be inoculated against the disease. Accelerated vaccination, together with the development of antibodies in people previously infected with the disease and the observance of health safety protocols, will definitely develop herd immunity in people. When this happens, the coronavirus becomes weaker and will gradually disappear into thin air.
It would not be prudent to make a hasty decision to declare COVID-19 an endemic. The effects of the Omicron variant on the economy and people are still there. When the disease is treated as an endemic and no records of infections and deaths are kept, it may engender negligence and nonchalance in people. And people may flout health safety rules. This may complicate the situation, leading to more infections and deaths and overstretching health facilities.

Health-related directives
Rather, the vaccination drive should be prioritised in every country. The COVAX facility should be strengthened with support from developed countries so that even poorer countries can vaccinate their people. In recent times, the world has suffered from SARS, Ebola virus and Nipah virus but the scale of these diseases was not as acute as that of COVID-19. These diseases have faded away. The medical community is also hoping that the respiratory disease will also fade away like these diseases.

We should live with COVID-19 but not negligently but by following health safety protocols. And governments around the world should make a religion of vaccinating all of their eligible people and the people should also take care of themselves by following health-related directives without fail. There is no denying that a day will come when the disease will be endemic like the flu.

(Maharjan has been regularly writing on contemporary issues for this daily since 2000. uttam.maharjan1964@gmail.com)