Zhang Hao / Li Shuyu

In the background of the withdrawal of NATO since 2014, China has carried out extensive diplomatic exercise in the Afghan reconciliation process. In July 2014, the Foreign Ministry of China established the Special Envoy for the Reconciliation of Afghanistan. In an interview with international media, Sun Yuxi, the first special envoy, stated that China "hopes to play a more important role in the Afghan issue." Nowadays, the cooperation between China and Afghanistan has shifted from economy and trade to comprehensive cooperation including security issues. So far, China has hosted a number of platforms of dialogue, including the China-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral dialogue, the 6+1 Dialogue on Afghanistan Issue, and closely involved with the Istanbul Process. In a report of Carnegie Endowment in 2010, it was said, "China has the potential to make important contributions to Afghan stability". Cooperation with China can help Afghanistan pave the way for future investments. The Chinese can make investments to reconstruct economy and stimulate economic growth of Afghanistan by mutual benefit.
After Afghan President Ashraf Ghani took office in 2014, China was the first country he visited. To what extent the Sino-Afghan cooperation gets promoted and deepened in days to come depends on whether the various factions in Afghanistan can reach a settlement and create a stable and safe domestic circumstance. When US President Donald Trump cancelled a Summit that he had planned to convene secretly with Afghan government and Taliban leaders on September 7, 2019, a shadow cast over the reconciliation process.
From the perspective of China, however, an opportunity for resumption of peace talk still exists. The outcome of the peace talk hinges on the establishment of mutual trust among Afghan Interim Administration, the Taliban and the United States. On October 2, a 12-member delegation of the Afghan Taliban arrived in Pakistan. Subsequently, the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Ambassador of US Government, Zalmay Khalilzad, arrived in Islamabad on the next day. The door to resume the trilateral peace talk does not seem closed completely.
Three reasons indicate why China actively participates in the mediation of Afghanistan reconciliation. First, peace and stability in Afghanistan is conducive to the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Central-Southern Asia. As early as 2003, economic and trade cooperation between China and Afghanistan had been initiated. A large number of Chinese companies participated in the reconstruction in Afghanistan. Since then, China has become one of the most important sources of foreign investment in Afghanistan. However, sophisticated domestic situation and high security risks in Afghanistan have caused many obstacles for implementations of foreign investment led by the Afghan government in many regions.
Due to the deterioration of the security situation from 2014 to 2015, the investment stock of Chinese enterprises has dropped by 19 per cent sharply, and the investment flow has dropped from US$27.92 million in the previous year to US$-3.26 million. Security issues are the main concern of Sino-Afghan economic and trade cooperation. Therefore, successful implementation of the BRI depends on to what extent stability and security is achieved in Afghanistan.
Secondly, the stability of the situation in Afghanistan is conducive to the promotion of Pakistan-Afghan relations and mutual development. The normalisation of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan is the cornerstone of long-term peace in that region. As another important neighbouring country of Afghanistan, Pakistan plays a constructive role in the long-term peace and stability of the Afghan society. On February 28, 2018, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani declared that his government wants to make a fresh start as far as relations with Pakistan. The deepening of reconciliation in Afghanistan is able to fill the vacuum in current governance on the border between the two countries and achieve a ceasefire and peace along the border area.
In recent years, China has played a critical role in bringing a change in Afghanistan’s attitude towards Pakistan. One example of the constructive role was the first China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue held in Beijing on December 26, 2017. One of important subjects from the trilateral dialogue was Beijing’s decision on extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan on the basis of improving Afghanistan-Pakistan relations. Obviously, the widened effects of CPEC will also benefit Afghanistan. The successful construction of the CPEC can promote the sharing of resource factors and infrastructure between the two countries, and through the CPEC, Afghanistan could be further integrated into the BRI.
Several infrastructure projects connecting Afghanistan, Pakistan and China have been planned. The important road project possibly included in the CPEC connectivity to Afghanistan was the road connecting western part of CPEC to Afghanistan by linking Chaman to Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif to Termez. This infrastructure project will provide an easy access for Afghanistan to reach the sea port of Gwadar and integrate Afghanistan with CPEC which allow her to start commercial activities through the Indo-Pacific Region. However, the security and stability in Afghanistan are still the main concerns. In the past, infrastructure projects under construction or built in western Pakistan were always attacked and destroyed by terrorist organisations along the unstable borders between the two countries. Both sides have motivation to achieve stability and peace along the border area.
Third, the stability and peace in Afghanistan have a positive effect on the northwestern region of China. Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of China, has emphasised that the fate of Afghanistan will directly affect the stability and security of the western region of China. For a long period of time, counterterrorism and de-extermination in China's Xinjiang autonomous region have become major security issues for China.  Based on these issues, China has been widely involved in the mediation of various political fractions in Afghanistan.  

(Zhang is a scholar at Sichuan University, Jincheng College, China and Li is a scholar at Yunnan University, China.)