Hira Bahadur Thapa

Omicron’s rapid and sudden emergence highlights the uncertainties in the pandemic’s trajectory. The spread of a more contagious variant of the virus makes it almost certain that we have to learn to live with this. While the scientific research continues to study the mutations and effective vaccines to prevent them, the eradication of the disease due to COVID-19 doesn’t appear possible in the foreseeable future. This pessimism is reinforced by uneven global allocation of vaccines. Over 70 per cent of COVID-19 vaccines produced in 2021 were bought by high-and upper-middle income countries. By contrast less than one per cent has gone to low-income ones. Consequently, millions remain unvaccinated due to a shortage of vaccines in the developing world.

Worrisome scenario
Unvaccinated population serves as a fertile ground for virus to mutate and evade protection from vaccine and natural infection. Although there is no conclusive evidence as yet regarding the virulence of Omicron, the scientific community is convinced that the virus is more transmissible than the previous ones. This is worrisome because increased caseloads of infection put a heavy burden on the health infrastructure of countries, creating a scarcity of medical workers. Such scenario is already visible in Britain and the US where officials are struggling to keep up with the alarming rise in Omicron cases.
Wealthy nations are rushing to provide the booster shots while the poor countries are still struggling to vaccinate their populations. Nepal is one of them where approximately one third of the country’s population is fully vaccinated. Despite the supply of necessary vaccine doses, the country is constrained by weak health infrastructure. Nepal needs assistance to develop the storage facilities. The transportation of vaccines to destinations due to rough terrain of the country is proving challenging, too.

Breakthrough Omicron infections are common, but scientists believe that the vaccines will still provide protection against the worst outcomes. Some researchers are worried that the dangerous infectiousness of Omicron can pose a serious threat to countries when health system gets strained. The rich nations which could have done a lot in avoiding the vaccination gaps are now becoming the victims of their own follies as many of them are facing rising cases of Omicron infection forcing some of them in Europe to lockdown to stench the stunningly infectious virus.

Against this backdrop, health experts have lamented that they have failed to learn our lesson. According to them, they grossly underestimated this virus and were unprepared for COVID coming back in a newly transmissible and virulent form and so we are going to pay price. One of the most urgent concerns now is whether the new wave of cases will strain and perhaps overwhelm hospitals. Scientists and public health professionals worry that this is already happening in Europe and the US.

The world is at another critical moment in this pandemic. The highly contagious Omicron variant of COVID-19 has been detected and is anticipated to cause a rapid increase in disease activity. Nepal lost thousands of lives when the Delta variant emerged in India last summer and swept the country. The scenes of migrant workers returning from India where Omicron has been spreading rapidly should be a matter of great concern. Being aware of this, the health minister has promised to provide booster doses on a priority basis though the country’s large population still remains unvaccinated. But the constraints of supply of ancillary goods such as syringes needed for Pfizer shots has forced the government to postpone the rollout of vaccination for the time being.

Fortunately, the situation between last year and now is different. Today vaccines are available for children five and above. Some anti-viral drug developed by Pfizer BioNtech and Merck to treat the COVID patients are available in the US. Only 27 per cent of total COVID-19 vaccines available are mRNA shots that use the new technology. These shots manufactured by Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna, which are concentrated in Europe and the US, so far are the vaccines that appear able to prevent people from becoming sick with the new, very contagious Omicron variant. Using mRNA technology Pfizer/Moderna shots train the body to make the protein that allows COVID-19 to infect cells and the antibodies that fight it off.

Omicron is spreading widely and risk for infection is higher than before. This creates uncertainty for low-income countries where a large swath of population waits for vaccination, let alone vaccinating the children. The limited health preparedness of such countries makes it difficult for them to cope with the emergence of new variants.

Vaccine concentration
But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections. These more effective and adaptable vaccines are even more concentrated in rich states than are shots overall. Vaccine-producing states are provided undue international influence by giving them the power to use vaccines as a tool of trade and diplomacy. Vaccine gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic. Recent surge of Omicron variant in wealthy countries underscores once again the reality that no one is safe until everyone is safe.

Vaccines are and remain a fundamental weapon. They can protect us from severe illness. The government should intensify efforts to inoculate the people as fast as it can. Coronavirus will not be eradicated with vaccines only. The best course of action is to get vaccinated and receive booster shots, if possible. Continued adherence to masking, avoiding crowds and maintaining good hygiene will also offer defense against the virus. COVID-19 has become something endemic that we must learn to live with, maybe for years to come.

(Thapa was Foreign Policy Advisor to the Prime Minister from 2008-09. thapahira17@gmail.com)