Devendra Gautam

Amidst the COVID-19 and the omicron crises, the headquarters of the first world has been grappling with an unprecedented and bizarre crisis for quite some time.
Even the lesser mortal pundits of the third world, yours truly included, have been watching this crisis with keen interest, though they have more important things to do, especially in a crisis like this, when working extra hours to earn a bit more has become the new normal.
Without beating about the bush, let yours truly delve a bit into the first-world crisis called the Great Resignation or the Great Quit.
What exactly is it? And how did it happen?

Occupational safety and health measures enforced to control the spread of the virus, including physical distancing, meant millions of workers started working virtually from their homes. Though an enforced measure, the workers loved it, they found soon enough that there’s no place like home, that home is also quite close to hearth and not heart alone.
With the 'party over', employers wanted workers to return to offices, only to find many, especially tech-savvy workers, unwilling.
Of course, the pandemic drove workers home, including in the third world. What usually happens amidst such pandemics is some introspection, soul-searching, provided you have a soul! Mari lanu ke cha ra, as they call it in Nepali. Of course, that’s what happened this time around as well! They began questioning: Do I want to slug it out just like this for the rest of my life? Are the jobs that I am clinging to worth it? Many would find that they were not.

So, they started looking for alternatives. Instead of working for one employer, they started working for multiple employers, many of them virtually, of course. Reports suggest that savvy Americans fell in love with telework. Gone were the days when one had to go to their offices for those days, often repetitive chores.
The website, fortune.com, citing the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) records, informs through its report titled: The Great Resignation rages on as a record 4.5 million Americans quit that 4.5 Americans quit their jobs in November 2021, the month when the Great Resignation was at its peak.

The report adds: The rate among those who voluntarily quit was about 3% of workers in November, a high last seen in September 2021, which was itself a new record. An extra 1.4 million people were either laid off from their jobs or fired, and an additional 377,000 experienced some other form of separation from their jobs in November. 
Based on BLS statistics, the report points out that the so-called Great Resignation shows no signs of slowing down, although it isn't affecting all job sectors equally. About 6.9% of those working in the accommodation and food services sectors quit in November, while only 1.7% of those working in finance left their jobs.

The number of private sector quits, which doesn’t include government or farm employees, hit a new all-time high of 3.4%, or 4.3 million workers, according to the BLS.
Love for telework was not the only reason behind the Great Resignation. The quitters included those tired of their toxic, thankless and strenuous jobs in different sectors like construction, hospitality and healthcare (so much so that some of the workers posted videos of them calling it quits), those who wanted to start their ventures, those who found better jobs and opportunities to work with more than one employer, laid-off workers and retirees.

Apart from the US, the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada have also been witnessing the big quit.
Analysts are seeing this phenomenon as a rare instance of workers calling the shots instead of their employers. In a way, the pandemic has come as a boon for well-prepared, adequately-skilled workers, giving them opportunities to land their dream jobs and climb up the peak of self-actualisation or close by in Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

It is quite clear that in hard times like these, workers would not have dared quit if governments had not come to their side. Generous paycheques from governments and social support packages helped.
Now, employers are trying hard to get back those workers or hire new ones, offering such lucrative packages as hiring bonuses, relocation allowances, flexible work hours and teleworking opportunities.
But will these good times for the workers last? Well, nothing lasts forever.
There are already indications that 2022 may turn out to be a rough year for the global economy. The Economic Times, in a slideshow titled RISKS TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2022, published on December 22, 2021, has forecasted some of the risks.

sWe don’t yet know whether the China-Taiwan conflict will conflagrate further, drawing several countries into the vortex. Thanks to the Evergrande crisis, fuel shortages, the COVID-19 pandemic a series of omicron-induced lockdowns, ongoing tussles with the US, the global economic powerhouse called China is facing a serious crisis. Any adverse impact on the Chinese economy can send the global economy on a free fall.
During the pandemic, food prices have increased around the world. Similar hikes in the future could spark protests that may turn into super-spreader events. Given the ability of viruses to mutate, we don’t yet know what’s in store for humanity.

On top of that, all's not well with Europe. Russia-Ukraine relations have soured and any conflict between them will escalate gas prices. This will not be a good tiding for a fossil fuel-run global economy. Yours truly does not even dare imagine the consequences if major powers join one or the other party to the conflict.
Much will also depend on the fate of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which the European Union and the United Kingdom have been discussing for quite some time as part of post-Brexit arrangements. The lack of progress in this process will impact not only the EU but this interconnected world as a whole.

On the home front, much will depend on how our southern neighbour deals with the COVID-19 pandemic and the omicron wave. If our experience is any guide, any outbreak in India makes inroads into Nepal within 15 days to a month, thanks to the border that is largely open on our side. Our security personnel are spread too thin along the border, meaning that the chances of the spread of the virus through the open border are pretty real. Instead of engaging in this blame game, how about forging better coordination with the southern neighbour to control unchecked human movements? How about keeping only a limited number of border points operational, especially in a critical time like this? When things start returning to normal, we can of course make an adequate decision.

Closer to home, a massive humanitarian crisis is developing in Afghanistan, with reports pointing to a mass hunger situation. Such a situation is likely to lead to an exodus to India through Pakistan and a large part of the displaced population is likely to enter Nepal through the open border and seek refuge. This is no good news for Nepal, a country finding it hard to deal with displaced populations from different parts of the world.
Anyway, there's no telling what the impact of a full-blown health crisis will have on a largely informal economy like ours, economically or otherwise. Past experiences show that we are slow when it comes to learning lessons and doing our utmost to protect the populations, especially the most vulnerable lot.

Therefore, it’s time for the state apparatuses to wake up to the threat and start taking measures in consultation with relevant experts to minimise the impact of the evolving crisis.

(Gautam is a freelancer)