Dipendra Shrestha

With a 198-member Central Committee and 166 alternate members, the ruling Communist Party of China, led by President Xi Jinping, discussed a five-year plan and vision for 2035 from October 26 to 29. Coinciding with this mammoth brainstorming meeting, US Foreign Secretary Mike Pompeo was on a trip to the South Asian countries - India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Indonesia and Vietnam from October 25 to 30. Pompeo was accompanied by US Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper It shows that the US has attached high priority to India. These cross sectional events signify that China dreams to stay strong and become the world's supreme power through consolidating its internal strength while the US wants to continue to keep China behind it.
It may be recalled here that the US has kept retaining its position as the world's largest economy since 1871. The then Soviet Union was another pole to the US for three decades economically, technologically and ideologically until the collapse of the communist rule in the former in 1991. After that, the US remained unchallenged for nearly two decades. China was able to bounce after market reforms in 1978. However, China was not in the spotlight globally. The country was only the world's seventh largest economy in 1980 with a total GDP of $305.35 billion, while the size of the US economy stood at $2.86 trillion, nearly 10 times more. China galloped for decades with an economic growth averaging 10 per cent annually and became the second largest economy in 2011 after overtaking Japan.
By the end of 2010, Japan's economy was at $5.474 trillion while China attained $5.8 trillion. The second richest China was still one-third of the US in terms of economic strength ($15.54 trillion). By the end of 2019, the nominal GDP of the US stood at $ 21.44 trillion, while that of China was $14.14 trillion, the difference being $7.30 trillion. The gap is expected to reduce to $7.05 trillion by the end of 2020 and $ 5.47 trillion by 2023. The US economy is being projected to grow to $24.88 trillion by 2023, which will be followed closely by China with $19.41 trillion in the same year. Talking about GDP in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), China has already overcome the US, with the former accounting for $27.31 trillion, whilst the later was having only $21.44 trillion by the end 2019.
Sluggish economy
The US economy has remained sluggish, depicting nearly stagnant graph over the last half decade while China has leaped forward without any fatigue, with over 5 per cent annual growth, though slower pace than in the earlier decades. In 2019, Chinese economy grew by 6.11 per cent whereas the growth of the US economy was limited to 2.33 per cent annually. The growth figures were 6.75 per cent and 3.18 per cent in 2018, 6.95 per cent and 2.22 per cent in 2017, 6.85 per cent and 1.57 per cent in 2016 achieved by China and the US, respectively.
Amid the global recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic, China has projected to achieve the GDP growth of 1.6 per cent. This, however, is another record slow since 1976. The World Bank has predicted that giant and advanced economies could shrink by up to 7 per cent, global record down since 1870. The above data paints a bleak picture of the US economy. China has been referred to as the "world's factory" in view of its huge manufacturing and export base. The US suffered a trade deficit of $345.6 billion with China in 2019, though tariff was heavily uplifted for Chinese goods, a penalty announcement of the US-China trade war. However, no significant symptom has been observed to reduce the trade deficit in the near future.
China is famous for its adherence to the long-term planning, in contrast to the often flip-flopping nature of democracies like the US, where promises and plans made by one government are vulnerable to being undone, if not rejected, by the next. Hence, there seems no other way than accepting China as the global leader in a decade ahead, provided no drastic alteration occurs in global economic health.
Against this backdrop, the US is going to the 59th quadrennial presidential election today. It may be for the first time in the American history presidential election, both candidates have raised the agenda outside the border. Unlike the previous elections, the agenda of both candidates for the election 2020 are almost similar in essence. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are trying to convince people to tackle the fast growing China and limit the global influence of the latter.
In the given condition, whoever becomes the new president, the US foreign policy is expected to be the same, especially the outlook towards China and Chinese issues. The US will hopefully invest additional dollars to tie nations along the border of China whereas China will remain busy implementing the decision of the recent plenary session to meet the deadline of 2035 for the nation to achieve 'the basically socialist modernisation'.
Both India and the US have recently agreed to participate in the upcoming Malabar naval exercises, which are scheduled to be held in Indian Ocean next month. The drills seem to engage the US, India, Japan and Australia. The so-called informal forum 'Quad', which has been observed by some as a potential 'Asian NATO', intends to counterbalance Chinese military strength in the very region. Such activities may contribute to disturbing and detracting the national priority and concentration of China. But this alliance may not be able to cause any significant damage to China. This will only dissolve the US citizens' taxes worth a billion dollar over China Sea.

Realisation
The US should realise that global dominance can be continued and maintained by strengthening domestic capacity and productivity instead of intervening in the progress of the rival. This realisation will not only contribute to continuing with supremacy of the US and its citizens but also benefit the entire humanity to live in a safer world, the world free of war and weapons.

(Shrestha is a lecturer at National College, Khusibu. dipsnepal@gmail.com)