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Why are COVID-19 fatalities up while cases drop?



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By Ajita Rijal
Kathmandu, Nov. 28: The number of COVID-19 case rate is said to be decreasing while at the same time the number of death is increasing in Nepal.
During the last 24 hours, 23 deaths related to COVID-19 were recorded from across the nation. The death toll during this week’s past five days data shows 23 deaths on Thursday, 28 on Wednesday, 24 on Tuesday, 16 each on Monday and Sunday. Four of the six days have consistently reported above 20 deaths per day.
Dr. Basudev Pandey, Director, Epidemiology and Disease Control Division (EDCD), under the Ministry of Health and Population (MoHP), said that the death cases were reported higher among those patients who already had pre-existing illnesses or were suffering from chronic health conditions.
According to the MoHP data, and with the latest death toll soaring to 1,435 on Thursday, the COVID-19 related death rate now stands at 0.62 per cent. Among one million (positive cases), the death rate is 46.6 per cent. According to the MoHP, 1,435 deaths were recorded as of Friday.
Meanwhile, the positive cases reported are said to be on decreasing trend, but still the deaths are reported from among those who do not have any travel history, said Dr. Pandey, who added that that indicated the virus had spread in the community level.
The death rate has remained high as infections reported were higher before, said Dr. Pandey, adding that most of the patients having other chronic health problems but who may not have been admitted to the hospitals in time are among those who perished.
According to doctors, the patients having the coronavirus symptoms but staying in home isolation and reaching hospitals at a late stage only after facing critical health issues, could be the major reason behind increasing number of deaths.
According to the latest MoHP data, 354 individuals infected with the virus are being treated in the intensive care units (ICU) of the hospitals across the nation and 54 patients are receiving treatment with ventilator support. Further, of the active cases, 10,944 patients are staying in home isolation.
The patients on ventilator support are the most critical ones. So the increase in number of patients receiving treatment with ventilator support means more will have the chances of fatalities, said Dr. Pandey.
According to doctors, people having chronic health conditions including respiratory problems, COPD, heart problems, diabetes, kidney and cancer are found dead after testing positive for COVID-19.
Dr. Sagar Rajbhandari, Director at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital (STIDH), Teku said that the serious patients who were admitted around 10-15 days before and after having critical health conditions, are among the fatalities.
Most of the referral patients, who were brought to STIDH after their health condition had already worsened, are among the ones succumbing to the virus, added Dr. Rajbhandari.
The Hospital has so far treated and discharged 750 COVID-19 patients. Of this, 27 fatalities were recorded, including three, who were already dead before reaching the Hospital, informed Dr. Rajbhandari.
“Now the death rate among people above 50 years of age has increased while a few months ago death rate was high among 60 years old.” After one becomes infected with the virus, it hits and deteriorates the lungs, which leads to decrease in required oxygen supply in the body, obstructing other organs, said Dr. Rajbhandari.
Dr. Rajbhandari suggested patients stay in close observation of doctors at home isolation to contain the death rate. Those patients having COVID-19 symptoms and fall under the critical health categories need to reach hospital in time, stressed Dr. Rajbhandari.
The doctors are concerned that as the winter season has now begun, viral infections including seasonal flu, which infect the lungs and respiratory tracts during cold conditions will be on the rise.
With temperature dropping, people are more likely to stay indoors most of the time with closed doors and windows, which could increase the chance of spreading virus rapidly.
So, doctors suggest following all the given public health safety protocols against COVID-19, including wearing masks, maintaining social distancing and hand waashing frequently.