By Amarendra Yadav

When Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli changed the portfolio of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Health and Population Upendra Yadav without informing him, the latter was attending a health-related international programme in New Delhi. PM Oli also sacked his party leader and State Minister for Health and Population Dr. Surendra Kumar Yadav without taking consent from the coalition partner, Samajbadi Party Nepal. The Samajbadi Party jointly co-chaired by Yadav and Dr. Baburam Bhattarai is a junior coalition partner of the current government and Yadav himself is leading the party in the government.
Many think that transferring Yadav to the Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs that is considered comparatively a low-profile portfolio, amounted to humiliation of DPM Yadav. Some others claim that the move signified a red signal for Yadav to quit the government. According to some party insiders, after returning from New Delhi, DPM Yadav had also reached a conclusion to withdraw from the government but he decided to stick to it after weighing the pros and cons of it.

Political course
And now questions are being raised: Why is Yadav still in the government despite such an insult? Political analyst Tula Narayan Sah said that following the three Madhes movements and the splits in his party several times, DPM Yadav had changed his political course in the wake of last local elections.
“As an experienced leader, he has come to senses that emotional politics does not always work. He is now treading the path of pragmatic politics and realised the need of exploiting power whenever there is a chance,” said Sah.
He said: “What will Yadav do after quitting the government? There is no election round the corner. There is no possibility of launching agitation in the near future either. So, Yadav is looking for the right time to quit the government. He will try to utilise the government in favour of his election constituency and party politics until the arrival of the right moment.”
The apparent mandate of the 2017 federal and State elections for the party is to rule the government in State 2 and continue struggle at the centre. In line with this, another party chair, Dr. Bhattarai, is pressing for the party’s exit from government. Analyst Sah also agrees to this line of thought, terming it an ideal course for the party. “But ideal line does not always fit in day-to-day politics.”
Political analyst Surendra Mahato said that had DPM Yadav quit the government citing his transfer to the new ministry, people would have construed him as a power-monger and it would have tarnished his image further. “As a Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Minister, Yadav must utilise the opportunity for creating an atmosphere for the amendment to the constitution.”
One-and-a-half-years ago, the then Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum Nepal had joined the Oli government on condition that the party’s constitution amendment agenda would be addressed. Even DPM Yadav and his party leaders have realised that constitution amendment is like a daydream now. Mahato, a senior advocate, said that DPM Yadav should throw his weight behind the amendment of the constitution as a last-ditch effort. “If his attempt does not bear any fruit, he should go to the people with the same agenda by pulling out support to the government,” Mahato remarked.
Rastriya Janata Party (RJP) Nepal, another Madhes-based party led by a presidium of six chairmen, is now an opposition party at the centre but a ruling coalition partner of Samajbadi Party in State 2. Some months back, it withdrew its support to the federal government saying that it had lent support in the hope of constitution revision. According to some media reports, Oli had offered an olive branch to RJP to join the government prior to the recent cabinet reshuffle.
Sah said if the RJP had received genuine call for joining the government, none of its leaders could have turned down the coveted offer.
However, the survival of the party is not the only prime concern but the sword of Damocles is hanging over its head, Sah said. According to him, the formation of RJP by merging of six parties was a magical event but it has become a mess since then. Mahato said that the RJP leaders would face a serious moral question if it had joined the current government because it had withdrew its support to the government only a few months ago citing its unwillingness to amend the constitution.
Samajbadi Party and RJP have been engaged in informal talks and consultations for long to materialise their unification bid. But there is no substantial outcome towards this end. The RJP leaders have been asking the Samajbadi Party to quit the government for the unification. Sah and Mahato both agreed that unification is obligatory for both the parties and they would unite some time in near future.
However, Mahato claimed that the RJP leaders were divided over the unification owing to their personal interests. On the other hand, Sah argued that there was no hurry right now for both the parties because there is no election in the near future. “They will definitely forge unity before the next election,” Sah claimed.

Implications
On the implications of the recent by-election results for the Madhes-based parties, Mahato said that the by-election results of the core Madhes region had heralded a message for both the parties to forge unity as soon as possible.
However, for the Janamat Party, led by Dr. CK Raut, it was a new experience. According to Sah, since this was the first election for the Janamat Party, the election had offered a good opportunity for political recognition. Mahato said “The future of CK Raut can’t be predicted right now. I think, as he has joined politics giving up his well-established career, he will not abandon it. But if he does not get success in electoral politics, he could join another big party.”

(Yadav is a TRN journalist)